Mesoscale Outlook indicates Severe storm watch likely early this afternoon south…



Areas affected…East-central IL…West-central IN

Regarding…Extreme potential…Extreme Thunderstorm Watch probably

Legitimate 071719Z – 071815Z

Chance of Watch Issuance…eighty %

SUMMARY…Thunderstorm protection is predicted to extend throughout
east-central IL and west-central IN. A few of these storms will
doubtless be extreme and a watch shall be wanted throughout parts of
area.

DISCUSSION…Current floor evaluation reveals quite a few boundaries
throughout the area. Probably the most outstanding when it comes to convective
improvement is the southwestward progressing outflow boundary
extending from Prepare dinner (in far northeast IL) county southeastward into
central IN after which eastward into central OH. A number of robust/extreme
storms developed shortly alongside this boundary in Lake and Porter
counties. Depth of those storms seems to have peaked however
further mobile improvement is feasible alongside this outflow
boundary with the thermodynamic and kinematic setting supportive
of robust updrafts able to hail and damaging downburst winds.
One other floor boundary within the area is the pre-frontal trough
extending from Prepare dinner county southwestward to only south of PIA and
persevering with southeastward into northeast MO. Improvement has occurred
alongside this boundary in Grundy county with further improvement
attainable forward of this boundary throughout east-central IL the place
dewpoints within the 70s and cooling mid-degree temperatures have
resulted in no convective inhibition and MLCAPE round 2000 J/kg.

General, thunderstorm protection is predicted to extend within the space
between the 2 boundaries talked about with a few of these storms
able to giant hail and damaging wind gusts. A watch will doubtless
be wanted to cowl this space.




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